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InfoComm in the Future of the Washington Area Economy
 
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Executive Summary
Introduction
The Changing Structure of the Washington Economy
InfoComm in the Washington Area Economy, 1980-1998
InfoComm in the Future of the Washington Area Economy
Economic Impact of Unfilled InfoComm Jobs
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2005:Digital Economy
The InfoComm Industry is projected to increase its employment base by 91,518 jobs between 1998 and 2010 (assuming that the estimated number of unfilled jobs today remains constant over this period). While employment in the InfoComm Industry is projected to grow 26.6 percent, the remainder of the area's private sector employment base is projected to add 675,392 new jobs, for a gain of 22.7 percent.

The economic impact of this projected growth is seen in the personal earnings generated in the InfoComm Industry and the Industry's overall contribution to the Washington area's gross regional product (see Table 5). Excluding the government sector, the total InfoComm employment in 2010 will generate $24.5 billion (in 1998 $s) in personal earnings, representing a real gain of $6.6 billion over the twelve-year forecast period, for a 37.9 percent increase. This gain will account for 20.3 percent of total personal earnings projected for all private sector jobs in the Washington area.


Table 5
InfoComm Jobs, Earnings and Output, 1998-2010
Washington Metropolitan Area

Year Job Growth* Earnings** GRP**
  InfoComm Total InfoComm Total InfoComm Total
1998 344.6 3323.2 17.9 88.1 29.9 149.7
2010 436.0 4090.1 24.7 8120.5 45.5 206.8
Change 91.5
766.9
6.8
32.4
15.6
57.1
% Change 26.6 23.1 38.0 36.8 52.2 38.1


Source: Center for Regional Analysis, GMU
*Private sector only, all jobs including self-employed, in thousands;
**In billions of 1998 $s, private sector only, to gross regional product


The diverse and interdependent nature of the InfoComm Industry within the Washington economy is seen in its projected contribution to the area's gross regional product (GRP). In 1998, the InfoComm Industry is estimated to have generated $29.9 billion (in 1998$s) in GRP, accounting for 20 percent of the total GRP generated by the area's private sector. By 2010, the InfoComm Industry is projected to generating $45.5 billion in GRP, for a gain of 52.2 percent, while the private sector's contribution to GRP is forecast to grow by 38.1 percent. The $15.6 billion increase in GRP generated by the InfoComm Industry over this 12-year period would account for 27.3 percent of the private sector's total increase in GRP and raise its share of private sector-generated GRP to 22 percent.

All sectors in the Washington area economy benefit from the continued rapid growth of the InfoComm Industry. Projected InfoComm Industry job growth occurs in three sectors: services, transportation, communications, and utilities (TCPU), and manufacturing. The share of these sectors' job gains over the forecast period are shown in Table 6.


Table 6
Job Growth in the InfoComm Industry By Sector, 1998-2010
Washington Metropolitan Area
(jobs in thousands and percent)

Sector Total
New Jobs
InfoComm
New Jobs
Percent Share
New Jobs
Manufacturing 37.1 11.2 30.2
TCPU* 38.4 2.3 5.9
Services 419.1 78.0 18.6
Subtotal 494.6 91.5 18.5
Total 766.9 91.5 11.9


Source: Center for Regional Analysis, GMU
*transportation, communications and utilities


In addition, the economic activity generated by these jobs will support the creation of 92,532 new jobs (excluding InfoComm jobs) across the other sectors of the area's economy (Table 7), accounting for 13.3 percent of the projected overall job gain.


Table 7
InfoComm Sector-Specific Multipliers and Related Job Growth
Washington Metropolitan Area

Sector Implicit Multiplier Job Growth* % of Gain**
Construction 0.0210 1,922 7.4
Manufacturing 0.0802 7,340 19.8
TCPU*** 0.0812 7,426 19.3
Trade 0.1165 10,662 8.6
FIRE**** 0.1111 10,167 22.0
Services 0.5936 54,324 13.0
Other 0.0076 691 6.1
Total 1.0111 92,532 13.2


Source: Center for Regional Analysis, GMU
*non-InfoComm jobs;
**percent of projected new jobs exclusive of InfoComm jobs;
***Transportation, communications and utilities
****finance, insurance and real estate

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